By what year will the most FLOP intensive run have been conducted or owned by the US federal government? Resolves Yes on all later years.

Qualifying events:

• Any arrangement (contractors, national labs etc.) under which the US government employees have the right to control what queries are run on the model.

• Any international collaboration where the US retains model query veto rights, but does not include international collaboration where the US is a stakeholder having e.g. a minority vote.

• If the US government seizes control over the current most FLOP-intensive pre-existing AI this qualifies.

• Any unanticipated event which clearly satisfies the spirit of this question

Government-controlled AI runs will be compared to the most FLOP-intensive AI run by a US-registered company i.e. we are excluding non-US runs.

(In case this happened long ago incidentally at some national lab, we'll only count post-2023 runs.)