What will be my pace if I complete the San Francisco Half-Marathon?
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แน€31k
resolved Jul 27

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My roommates roped me into running the SF half-marathon. The most I've run at one time is about 5 miles.

The race is in 9 weeks. I'll try to do the recommended training for the most part. Today I ran 3.77 miles in 45 minutes, which is kinda slow (~12:00/mi).

Market is inspired by Austin's: https://manifold.markets/rachel/will-austin-finish-his-half-maratho
His pace is so good, it would be a miracle if I could beat it.

  • Update 2025-06-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that if they do not complete the run, the market will resolve to N/A.

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I did it! Finished the half-marathon this morning!

I'm proud that my time was a bit better than expectations: 2 hours 3 minutes 47 seconds, or 9:27 minutes per mile. https://www.athlinks.com/event/1403/results/Event/1111179/Course/2598267/Bib/11079

I went way too fast in the beginning, really struggled through some of the middle uphill sections, and rallied for the last 1.5 miles with a sprint across the finish line.

I ate 2 packets of gushers while running, and that did not go so well ๐Ÿ˜‚

Overall, it's been a great experience. I was only able to train for two months, but with one more month I think I could have done even better. I didn't listen to any music, but next time I would because I think that would help. (I still don't know if I'd ever be able to beat Austin's time though haha).

One more note: I encourage you all to try running a half-marathon. Training for this was much easier than expected. When you train you're supposed to run slowly to keep your heart rate in check. If you find training hard, that just means you should run slower until it's not hard! Also, try to run with someone else to make it even more fun.

Thanks to @CharlesLien for being my running partner. Also, big thanks to my roommate @AbhinavHampiholi for getting me into this!

@JamesGrugett Congrats!

Had my strongest run yet today. 9.2 miles, just over 10 min / mi pace.

Race day is in 2 weeks!

how will the market resolve if you don't complete the run?

sold แน€186 Answer #NO

Update after a week and a day:

I've done 5 total runs, the shortest of which was 3.18 miles, and today I ran 5 miles. It's been a blast running with others and hasn't been that hard yet.

On today's 5 miles, my pace was almost exactly 10:00 per mile, which is quite a bit better than my first run last week. Excited by the progress!

(Sorry I recreated the market b/c I did the numeric buckets wrong!)