Will the entire civilian population of Gaza be expelled from the Gaza Strip by January 1, 2025? | Manifold

Will the entire civilian population of Gaza be expelled from the Gaza Strip by January 1, 2025?

15

Ṁ1314

Jan 1

3%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

🇮🇱 Israel Arab-Israeli Conflict 🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

Sort by:

I extended the closing time to the date mentioned in the title -- it looks like the creator used the default of 1 week by accident.

predicts NO

@JamesTerry Why not to keep this open until resolution?

predicts NO

I feel like we recently get a wave of provocative polls with gets to <10% within minutes, and everyone bets "NO" immidiately

Related questions

Will there still be Israeli hostages in Gaza, by the end of 2025

-5% 1d68% chance

[Metaculus] Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?

Will Israel attempt to make Gazans leave "voluntarily" in 2024?

Will 200,000 or more Gazans voluntarily emigrate by the end of 2024?

On the 1 Jan 2025 Will the population of the Gaza strip be reduced to 80% or less than it was on 1 Jan 2023

Will Israel ethnically cleanse the Gaza strip of more than 100,000 Palestinian civilians by 2025?

Will Israel occupy Gaza on a semi-permanent or permanent basis before 2025?

Will The Palestianians who evacuated to southern Gaza be allowed to return by the end of 2025? (M 500 Subsidies)

Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026?

By 2025, will Israel claim that Hamas is no longer active in the Gaza Strip?

Related questions

Will there still be Israeli hostages in Gaza, by the end of 2025

Will Israel ethnically cleanse the Gaza strip of more than 100,000 Palestinian civilians by 2025?

[Metaculus] Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?

Will Israel occupy Gaza on a semi-permanent or permanent basis before 2025?

Will Israel attempt to make Gazans leave "voluntarily" in 2024?

Will The Palestianians who evacuated to southern Gaza be allowed to return by the end of 2025? (M 500 Subsidies)

Will 200,000 or more Gazans voluntarily emigrate by the end of 2024?

Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026?

On the 1 Jan 2025 Will the population of the Gaza strip be reduced to 80% or less than it was on 1 Jan 2023

By 2025, will Israel claim that Hamas is no longer active in the Gaza Strip?