Will AI creative writing have an o1 moment before 2027?
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12
Ṁ248
2027
60%
chance

Resolves yes if I judge an AI model to exceed gpt-4o in creative writing by a similar magnitude as o1 exceeds gpt-4o in advanced mathematics.

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bought Ṁ20 NO

The creative writing I have seen so far has mostly been bad, and nobody put in the effort to convince me otherwise in two months.

bought Ṁ10 YES from 70% to 73%
bought Ṁ20 NO from 73% to 60%
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