Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?
โž•
Plus
60
แน€25k
Jan 1
49%
chance

The model need not be released

๏ธ TechnologyAITechnical AI TimelinesAI ImpactsOpenAI
Get แน€1,000 play money
8 Comments
Sort by:
opened a แน€500 NO at 45% order

@Bayesian Limit up at 45% ;)

@BrunoJ i can uh... get a better price if i wait... ๐Ÿ˜ญ

opened a แน€3,000 YES at 51% order

All it would take is running the IMO model on Frontier Math.

bought แน€900 NO
bought แน€500 NO

@VinceVatter FrontierMath is orders of magnitude harder than IMO.

@traders 116 days until 2026! is a breakthrough expected over the next 4 months? Given the size of the jump from GPT-4 to GPT-5, I'm not sure why this is at 55%. I'm going to keep buying a little bit more NO every day.

boughtแน€250NO

@BrunoJ Limit up at 50%

@Bayesian I'm a little bit overexposed on this one ๐Ÿ˜…

filled a แน€1,250 YES at 99.0% order

o3-mini got 32% https://openai.com/index/openai-o3-mini/

Related questions