Will the AI Snake Oil book be out of date by the time it's published?
14
Ṁ595
Sep 24
40%
chance

'AI Snake Oil: What Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can’t, and How to Tell the Difference' comes out on 2024/9/24. I will consider it out of date if >50% of the things it claims AI can't do can be done by then.

Protocol (rough draft, open to improvements):

  • Have LLM(s) extract concrete claims of what AI can't do from the book

  • Randomly sample a few (10-20?)

  • Have 2 people independently assess whether AI can do them (YES/NO) and give half credit in case of disagreement

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50% is super high lol

is there any particular reason you plan to have an LLM digest and regurgitate claims from the book instead of ... y'know. reading it yourself?

@pyrylium I'm lazy and I value my time at >$25/month.

@JavierPrieto if your first reaction to the notion of reading a book (ostensibly within your fields of interest) is "what is the financial opportunity cost" then I genuinely, sincerely feel bad for you. but ok

@pyrylium There are thousands of books within or relevant to the field of AI policy and governance

@Radicalia this market isn't for "untitled median AI policy/governance book". digesting thousands of titles within an arbitrary field of work in order to extract common assumptions would be an excellent application for an LLM