Transgender US passports with non-birth gender revoked by February 2029?
16
Ṁ12062029
63%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Basically the same as my previous market. Same resolution criteria, minus the timeline. De facto situation or any legal action trigger resolution. Phrasing of end of timeline is weird to maximize handling of edge cases.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?
12% chance
Will it be possible for transgender people to leave the US in 2026? (Can renew passports; Not imprisoned)
91% chance
Will Canadians with gender-neutral passports be treated equally when travelling to the USA in 2025?
26% chance
Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?
27% chance
Will 60% or more Americans have a passport by EOY 2025?
2% chance
Transgender US passport holders allowed correct sex designations when?
-
Will Trump revoke EXISTING gender-neutral passports in his second term?
54% chance
ANY safe-to-visit country refuses gender-neutral passports by 2040
35% chance
Will Kimmy's transgender (mtf) passport get revoked before its natural expiry date (end of 2028)?
22% chance
Will testosterone for transgender HRT be available in the US on 2026-02-01?
88% chance