Age of death multi-market
Mini
19
Ṁ1928
3001
99%
Jimmy Carter
91%
Chris Mirabile
88%
Pope Francis
88%
Donald Knuth
88%
Bill Gates
87%
Scott Alexander
86%
Jeff Bezos
86%
Michelle Obama
86%
Joe Biden
86%
Donald Trump
85%
Peter Thiel
85%
Bryan Johnson
85%
Destiny
84%
George R R Martin
84%
Xi Jinping
83%
Ray Kurzweil

Each market resolves PROB to the age at which the person dies. 100+ resolves YES.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
Pope Francis
bought Ṁ1 Pope Francis NO
Donald Trump

Is this actually correct at 80%? Why would he be a forerunner for President if he's not expected to live out the term. Something doesn't add up here.