Will trump be elected president while NOT incarcerated?
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32
Ṁ8639
resolved Nov 7
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if multiple news outlets call the 2024 election for Trump while Trump is NOT in prison.
Resolves NO if that doesn't happen by 12-15-2024.

The flipped version:

️ PoliticsTrump
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@JonathanRay I think this can resolve now

predicted NO

I don't think 80% of the probability mass of trump winning the election should be in the not-incarcerated state when the overall probability of him being incarcerated by the end of 2024 is ~50%. It'd get the base fired up to 11.

predicted NO

Just to clarify, this never resolves N/A. It’s either yes or no.

I think the question could be rephrased to make it clearer that it’s a conditional

predicted NO

@Khoja It’s a conjunction not a conditional

@JonathanRay Good to know—the description mentions a “flipped conditional,” so I assumed this question was meant to be a conditional as well.

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