Resolves YES if any foreign enemy troops enter internationally recognized 1991 Russia borders with the goal to take control of some Russian territory. The troops count should be adequate to the goal stated, with >10000 combatants. (The same rules apply to Ukrainian troops: the border crossings only count if they have a goal of taking control of some territory and use adequate forces so e.g. May/June 2023 incursions would not have counted).
Resolves NO in 2060.
@traders in light of opinions giving a lower estimate like https://substack.com/@bigserge/p-147487790 the market will stay open for longer; I'll have to think about specific resolution criteria; suggestions are welcome.
https://substack.com/@bigserge/p-147487790 gives likely <8000 troops. Now that's confusing. Is this a good source?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion gives estimates of >10000 troops.
@traders this might resolve YES soon if there are good sources stating >10000 Ukrainian combatants and goals which include at least medium-term territory control.
There is now a new narrower market with the same criteria but excluding Ukraine: https://manifold.markets/JuJumper/will-russia-be-invaded-by-foreign-t-he5qjg2ncw.
@SamuelHvidager it might still resolve YES if conditions are met. If there are significant changes to what Russia is, will resolve NA.
@JuJumper Idk, sometimes. An interesting example is US invading Iraq, it was definitely an invasion but no territory was ever claimed, technically speaking.
@ProjectVictory US invading Iraq seems to meet the spirit of this market. While the US didn't claim the territory for themselves, they had to take significant control over Iraq, even if temporarily.
@JuJumper That's exactly what I'm talking about. It meets the spirit, but there was never any intention to claim any territory, technically speaking.
@ProjectVictory the stated goals for the invasion included destruction of WMDs and driving terrorists out. This seems to require a significant amount of control over the territory as a preliminary goal.
@PS I don't think they should. They were attempted with forces obviously inadequate for the stated goals. Maybe I should add a clause like ">10000 combatants".