Background: On January 20, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order barring individuals from changing their gender on federal documents, including passports. The order has also resulted in the immediate suspension of processing applications for gender-neutral "X" passports and has halted the State Department's issuance of passports with "X" markers.

Right now, even routine renewals are being denied, or fulfilled with incorrect gender markers. This creates safety issues for trans people: they are outed to potential employers, and may be met with increased scrutiny by agents while checking documents. (Many trans people interpret the EO as an effective ban on travel out of the country)

Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve YES if by December 31, 2025:

• The executive order is officially rescinded, OR

• A federal court issues an injunction or ruling that effectively blocks the implementation of the order, OR

• The State Department resumes processing gender marker changes and/or "X" marker passports despite the order

ADDITIONALLY, at least one of the following MUST happen (the “State Department Will Obey the Courts” clause):

• A news source of repute reports that trans people are actually able to renew or apply for passports with correct gender marker with at least one case study in the article (anonymous is fine), OR

• >=5 case studies can be found on Reddit, Twitter, Bluesky of trans people saying they were able to successfully renew or apply with correct gender marker, and this is not implied to be a fluke (sympathetic agent willing to bend rules)

For the purpose of this market, “correct gender marker” means “corresponding to gender identity” (e.g. F for trans women, M for trans men).

The market will resolve NO if the executive order remains in effect or is being enforced as of December 31, 2025.

Border cases:

• Any partial overturning or shitty compromises (eg requiring surgery or for binary trans people only or allowing M/F but not X changes/renewals) will still resolve YES.

👉🏻 This market is a “do the courts even care about us at all, will they even bother lifting a tiny finger, will things even begin to turn around” market, not a “will things go back to the way they were” market

Considerations:

• Multiple LGBTQ+ advocacy groups, including Lambda Legal, are preparing legal challenges to the order

• Legal proceedings often extend beyond a year, which may impact the timeline for potential resolution

• The State Department has not yet provided guidance regarding previously issued passports

• Many states continue to allow gender-neutral options on drivers' licenses, creating potential conflicts between state and federal identification policies

• Similar executive orders in the past have faced legal challenges based on constitutional grounds, particularly the Equal Protection Clause

• There’s a lot going on right now and transgender people are not exactly high on most peoples’ priority list