Will more than 1000 people die in a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon during 2024?
24
Ṁ5928
Dec 31
71%
chance

Counting all deaths caused by all fighting between the two sides during all of 2024.

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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq6rzvyz9p6o

"Since October, more than 560 people have been reported killed according to Lebanon's health ministry, the vast majority of them Hezbollah fighters, while 26 civilians and 23 soldiers have been killed in Israel, authorities report."

I'm not sure about the count for just this year, but it's seems like the intensity of the conflict would have to increase substantially for this to resolve YES.

If we need an exact count, this seems to be the news feed for Lebanon's health ministry: https://www.moph.gov.lb/en/Media

I found no numbers. But this hints at a reduction in threat risk:

“The U.S. and four of its European allies hope to announce in the next few weeks a series of commitments made by Israel and Hezbollah to diffuse tensions and restore calm to the Israel-Lebanon border, according to two Israeli officials and a source briefed on the issue.” Feb 6, 2024

https://www.axios.com/2024/02/06/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-biden-gaza

predicts YES

What source will you use?