People in San Francisco are working on launching a public bank: https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/san-francisco-public-bank-17781925.php

Let's estimate the probability that this bank will actually get off the ground. Will the bank issue one loan before January 1, 2028?

Feb 22, 7:25pm: Will San Francisco have a public bank accept deposits before January 1, 2028? → Will San Francisco have a public bank issue at least one loan before January 1, 2028?

(Question and description changed because the bank will not initially be able to accept deposits.)