This is Kevin's high-confidence prediction from the 1/3/25 episode of the "Hard Fork" podcast.
Market will resolve to yes if a crypto memecoin created in 2025 reaches $100 billion in market cap by the end of the year, even briefly. Otherwise, it resolves to no.
Crypto moves fast and unpredictably, today’s meme can be tomorrow’s moonshot. With the right momentum, hitting a $100 billion cap in 2025 isn’t out of the question. That said, it would need insane hype, solid branding, and probably some celebrity backing. I’ve been trading on Gemini for a while now, and when I had a login issue last year, the Gemini phone number actually came in handy, rare for crypto platforms.
@KevinRoose18ac I'm selling my entire position because of this change; I thought memecoins created near the end of 2024 such as GOAT counted.