Who will be first to AGI | Manifold

Who will be first to AGI

Plus

36

Ṁ1583

2050

1D

1W

1M

ALL

30%

OpenAI

10%

Microsoft

6%

Meta

4%

Huggingface/homegrown

30%

Google

11%

US government

4%

China government

1.6%

Russia government

1.8%

Apple

1.8%

AGI is impossible

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Missing DeepSeek

Huffing the copium

Does it resolve to AGI is impossible if AGI is possible but not achieved by 2050?

@ProjectVictory Yes

There are a few answers >10% that are missing

What happens if multiple work together?

Would "other" be worthy of being an option?

@Quroe the question is which of these companies will be first out of these companies listed

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+4% 1d53% chance

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Related questions

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Will we get AGI before 2035?

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Who will lead the AGI race end of 2025?

Which company will create AGI first?

Will we get AGI before 2034?

What year will mark the first true AGI?

What organization will be the first to create AGI?