Will resolve in 2063 to the best decentralized consensus on which individuals physically pulled a trigger to fire a bullet into the body of JFK on the day of his assassination.
Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator specified that they believe no current method for decentralized consensus exists. They pointed to another market as their prediction for how this concept will eventually be realized.
Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the market will only resolve to individuals who fired successful hits. Shots that missed will not count.
Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has recommended several sources to understand their perspective on the events of the assassination, which will likely inform their final resolution. These include:
Lectures by Daniel Sheehan
The Oliver Stone film "JFK"
which individuals physically pulled a trigger to fire a bullet into the body of JFK on the day of his assassination
To clarify, since the 'to' is context dependent, is this anyone who attempted to shoot him (including misses), or anyone who did actually successfully shoot him? There were 2 bullet impacts on him but possibly 3 shots
@TheAllMemeingEye Great question. They must be successful hits. From the information I have seen, there appeared to be three shots. One in the back, one in the throat and the final head shot (Morales).
@Krantz thanks for clarifying
According to the Wikipedia article, wasn't the throat the exit wound of the back shot?
According to the Warren Commission and the HSCA, Kennedy was waving to the crowds on his right when a shot entered his upper back and exited his throat just beneath his larynx.
If you actually want to know what happened, I'd recommend these lectures by Daniel Sheehan:
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLVza7sesLJh44w4o6Z6gNqtgU4bea5PqP&si=ugK4hR3kvt2nylM3
Similar lectures can be found here:
https://manifold.markets/Krantz/what-will-i-believe-is-the-most-imp?r=S3JhbnR6
In general, there's a lot. It's easy enough to find if you look for it. Did you even watch "JFK" by Oliver Stone?
I'd recommend that, at least.
What would you say is the best currently existing and implemented method for achieving decentralised consensus?
@TheAllMemeingEye I would say that society today has absolutely no ability to reach a decentralized consensus. I think that's what we need to figure out how to do. Here's my prediction for how we will eventually do that.. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/which-source-of-truth-will-be-unive?r=S3JhbnR6
@TheAllMemeingEye Kialo maybe? It's pretty bad though.. I'd love to find a resource that does a better job at mapping out the logical connective structure of a person's internal beliefs, if you know of any.
Daniel Sheehan's opinion: https://youtu.be/C4rSj5Aum7w?si=9bxBY_uFsf99kn6g