@Ronan I assume the real-money markets have Trump higher? They usually tend to give Republicans higher chances, while Manifold gives Democrats higher chances. I think it's because the user bases are different, and there's some wishcasting going on.
@PlasmaBallin Yeah exactly.
Bit odd though, would seem like an arbitrage opportunity if the money markets are wishcasting
@Ronan They're typically not that far apart once you account for opportunity costs and spread (Which can give something like 5% of leeway).
The hot CPI forcing bonds up and tanking the market plus Iran possibly striking Israel and sending up oil prices/possible recession seem to help Trump more than the Arizona abortion situation helps Biden.
Taking my profit from the ramp up from previous negative sentiment against Trump’s chances. I don’t see this going higher than uncertainty without a black swan event. I thought it would be inevitable that Trump would be the mainstream candidate for the GOP but now that we are here I don’t know what will happen next.
@PatrickDelaney The labor market is deteriorating fast from surveys such as NFIB, Kansas City Fed, JOLTS, NY Fed, ISM, and Household Employment BLS survey
@riverwalk3 Found one that I think you're talking about...? https://www.kansascityfed.org/LMCI/documents/10035/lmci_031224.pdf