Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?
20
Ṁ659
2030
80%
chance

This question aims to predict the progress in nuclear fusion research and development by the end of the year 2030. It focuses on whether a significant scientific or technological breakthrough in nuclear fusion will be achieved by 2030 December 31. The following criteria define a "significant breakthrough" in this context:

  • Demonstration of Net Energy Gain(✔Experimantaly achieved!): Achieving a sustained nuclear fusion reaction where the energy output exceeds the energy input, marking a critical milestone towards practical fusion power.

  • Advancement in Containment and Stability: Substantial progress in solving the challenges of plasma containment and stability, which are key hurdles in making fusion energy feasible.

  • Scalability and Reproducibility: Developments indicate that fusion technology is moving towards scalability and reproducibility, which are essential for future commercialization.

  • Increased Global Investment and Collaboration: A notable increase in funding, international collaboration, or public-private partnerships dedicated to accelerating nuclear fusion research.

Criteria for Resolution:

The market will resolve as "Yes" if, by the end of 2030 December 31, there is credible and widely acknowledged evidence that all the above criteria for a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology have been met. This evidence might include peer-reviewed scientific publications, announcements from leading research institutions, or coverage by major science news outlets.

The market will resolve as "No" if such a breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology has not been achieved or publicly recognized by the specified date.

Updates on the significant breakthrough:
2023.Dec.21

  • Advancement in Containment and Stability

  • Scalability and Reproducibility

  • Increased Global Investment and Collaboration

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[Deleted—accidentally commented twice]

predicts YES
predicts YES

@weissz Thank you for the great news! I will check the news and related articles later today👍

predicts YES

@weissz Sorry for the late reply,
I have looked thoroughly at the article, and here is what I have found:
Achieving a net energy gain from fusion – 3.15 megajoules of output from 2.05 megajoules of laser energy – is a historic milestone.
However, it's crucial to recognize that this gain is calculated only from the energy input directly to the fusion fuel, not the total operational energy, including powering the lasers.
I will update the description of the Demonstration of Net Energy Gain as experimentally achieved!
Thank you for the comment!👍👍