Will Gallup, Aella OR authoritative pollster show a[n implied] drop in Gen Alpha afab non-cis rates, from 2025, in 2035?
4
Ṁ105
2035
55%
chance

Resolves N/A if no clear sufficiently-authoritative survey data exists.

Context 1: https://open.substack.com/pub/aella/p/the-dropping-nonbinary-rates-paper?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2bgcsx

Context 2: https://news.gallup.com/poll/656708/lgbtq-identification-rises.aspx

Context 3 [ my article ]: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XH463zpuJi75ynMzj/uncursing-civilization

  • Update 2025-11-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The drop in trans rates must be between 2025 and 2035 (not just any drop by 2035).

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The OR makes this much more likely to resolve yes, especially given the stated position.

I read this post as a "will my beliefs will be supported by anecdote" poll.

@ArtimisFowl The stated position? I expect real rates to keep rising, impossible though that may seem to most. Maybe I should clarify that the drop must be between 2025 and 2035.

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