Which bold predictions will come true during the 2024 MLB season?
Mini
19
Ṁ4441
Nov 9
98.1%
At least one of the Giants' free agent additions from the 2023–24 offseason will have a higher fWAR than Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto
97%
The second semifinal of the Home Run Derby will go to a tiebreaker
95%
Shohei Ohtani will steal more bases than the total of the number of games he's suspended (if any) + the number of open media sessions he attends during the season
94%
Shota Imanaga will finish with a higher fWAR than Yoshinobu Yamamoto
90%
The top pick in the 2024 amateur draft will not be Dub Gleed, Michael Massey, Ethan Petry, or Marek Houston
74%
Either Hagen Smith (Arkansas), Chase Burns (Wake Forest), or both will surpass the 15.3 K/9 achieved by Paul Skenes in 2023
57%
There will be at least one ejection in the Super Regional round of the NCAA tournament, but none in the College World Series
55%
The four "Jacksons" (Holliday, Jobe, Chourio, Merrill) will produce more fWAR than the four "jacked sons" (Yandy Díaz, Tyler O'Neill, Adolis García, Michael Lorenzen)
55%
The Atlanta Braves will win at least 49 more games than the Chicago White Sox
43%
The average age of MLB batters, weighted by plate appearances, will be lower than in any season since the 1970s (i.e. <27.91 yrs)
43%
A relief pitcher (50%+ appearances in relief) will win as many games as one of the Cy Young winners
41%
At least one position player drafted in July will play in the 2024 regular season or postseason
38%
At least one active MLB player will issue an apology in a press release for comments made on social media about the 2024 election or issues related thereto
32%
There will be a viral or semi-viral moment involving a screenshot of a player's nipples, gooch and/or butthole, or the outline of their penis and/or testicles being visible through their uniform during a broadcast
28%
Oneil Cruz will receive MVP votes, but still finish behind Elly De La Cruz
28%
Patrick Bailey will be the first player in the 2020s to put up 30 runs of defensive value according to Fangraphs
22%
Sixto Sánchez will become the first player to earn Rookie of the Year votes in non-consecutive seasons
17%
The regular-season schedule will end with the first-ever three-way tie for a playoff spot
17%
For the second straight season, there will be a first-time World Series winner (Rays, Rockies, Mariners, Brewers, Padres)
16%
The average per-team stolen-base total will be the highest since the 1980s

On Episode 2143 of the Effectively Wild podcast, Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, Ben Clemens, and Michael Baumann each made 10 "bold" predictions about baseball in 2024. Which ones will come true?

Source: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2143-the-2024-preseason-predictions-game/

Most of, but not all, the predictions are about the MLB season itself. Some are about college baseball. But they will all be resolved by the end of the MLB World Series in early November.

Resolution arbitration of all 40 questions will be determined by official MLB results, the Effectively Wild prediction contest, and the Associated Press.

️ SportsBaseballMLBCollege BaseballEffectively Wild
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
15 Comments
Sort by:

@LukeW seeking clarification on "At least one of the Giants' free agent additions from the 2023–24 offseason will have a higher fWAR than Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto": does the FA addition need to have a higher fWAR than BOTH Ohtani and Yamamoto, or does this resolve YES if one of the additions beats Yamamoto, but not Ohtani, in fWAR

based on the relevant podcast, it seems to be the latter.

@R2D2sm5g the latter is my interpretation as well

opened a Ṁ1 Answer #706fe2ec51e0 NO at 9% order

@LukeW this can resolve NO too

@mattyb technically this cannot resolve until end of season, since negative WAR can be earned

bought Ṁ100 Answer #91c0b470194d NO

@LukeW this can resolve NO now. this happened last month

@mattyb sorry for the slow resolutions! Updating

This seems... more likely than it did at the beginning of the season

@LukeW UCL sprain... so maybe not

Mariners are being no-hit through 7 innings at the moment

@LukeW M's got their 2 hits. This prediction survives another day.

Man, arm injuries suck.

They won their first 5 games, not a bad start 🏴‍☠

bought Ṁ50 Answer #dc55a56163a1 NO

https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1772786904141848981?s=20

The average per-team stolen-base total will be the highest since the 1980s

I believe the number to be exceed here would be 126.54 SB per team, which happened in 1990 when there were 26 teams. Now that there are 30 teams we would need 3797 SB for this to resolve true.

Related questions