Will a model get 1500 elo on lmarena (lmsys) before July 2025? | Manifold

Will a model get 1500 elo on lmarena (lmsys) before July 2025?

16

Ṁ1502

in 7 hours

1.3%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a model has achieved 1500 elo on lmarena (lmsys) before July 1st 2025.

️ Technology LLMs AI Benchmarks Chatbot Arena Leaderboard

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

Sort by:

Looks like their new website UI (better visuals, fewer numbers) shows the style control version.

Which one is used for this market?

boughtṀ30YES

@NebulaByte do you wanna bet more on YES? i'm willing to bet more on NO

@Bayesian I'm very poor

bought Ṁ30 YES

https://x.com/lmarena_ai/status/1930658518560133435

https://x.com/lmarena_ai/status/1904581128746656099/photo/1

Related questions

Will an AI model achieve superhuman ELO on Codeforces by the 31 December 2025?

First model series to cross 1500 on lmarena.ai?

Will Mistral's next model make it to the top 10 models in LLM Arena by the end of 2025?

Will Lmarena be a relevant benchmark at EOY 2025?

Who will have the highest ranking model on web.lmarena.ai by EOY 2025?

Will Llama 4 Behemoth top the lmarena?

Who will develop the first model to reach 1500 ELO on LLMArena Text leaderboard?

GPT5 gets 1500 elo on lmarena.ai?

Will someone new reach 2800 Elo rating in 2025?

-10% 1d10% chance

Model at 1600 Elo on lmarena before 2026?

Related questions

Will an AI model achieve superhuman ELO on Codeforces by the 31 December 2025?

Will Llama 4 Behemoth top the lmarena?

First model series to cross 1500 on lmarena.ai?

Who will develop the first model to reach 1500 ELO on LLMArena Text leaderboard?

Will Mistral's next model make it to the top 10 models in LLM Arena by the end of 2025?

GPT5 gets 1500 elo on lmarena.ai?

Will Lmarena be a relevant benchmark at EOY 2025?

Will someone new reach 2800 Elo rating in 2025?

Who will have the highest ranking model on web.lmarena.ai by EOY 2025?

Model at 1600 Elo on lmarena before 2026?