What counts:
Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.
Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.
Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.
It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.
Related:
Can somebody explain this to me? My prior is that it would be incredibly bad optics for a former us pres to be sent to jail internationally (and potentially incite civil unrest) and so the judge would opt for a different form of sentence if that is within his or her remit. Plus other factors like his age etc. bias in this direction. What am I missing from the YES case?
fwiw my estimate is like 5-10%, though I’m not informed much about the legal proceedings (the details don’t make the news in the UK)
Note that house arrest counts for this market.
I am the main YES holder in this market, but I've mostly obtained these through arbitrage with unconditional markets (if it is 20% unconditionally elsewhere, then this market should be at least 30%). I don't actually think it's very likely myself.
@jim look jimothy I share your concerns about conditional markets in general but this anti Biden rhetoric is outrageous