Resolves after the AP calls the race.
Florida is like 97% R this cycle. It would take a black swan event for Trump to lose. Voter Registrations were the early signal that Trump would win in 2020. They are cataclysmic for Dems now. The voter rolls are stringently cleaned up. Its a friendlier R environment. Dem PAC polls can only get Harris within 4. Come on what are we doing here. I'll keep buying in that case.
The D primary turnout decrease is because of lack of competitive primary. Party registration drop off between 2021-22 would be reflected in 2022 midterms and could perhaps explain R outperformance. I'm not sure 23-24 trend is as meaningful because of the presidential primary, and unaffiliated also dropped.
According to the Florida Department of Elections there are a lot of voters not participating in recent elections. A win for either party in Florida really looks like it all comes down to mobilization. They also have a huge block of independents.
Voter Registration
Voter Turnout
Source: https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/elections-data/voter-turnout/
@mint This doesn't have as much significance as you think. Florida has strong protections for these Amendments initiatives. These two initiatives could drive voter turnout and that's probably the point but Trump would still need to fall pretty low in polling to flip the state.