Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.
This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.
If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
I was going to sell my Brown shares when I saw that this market had gotten up to 47%. But then I looked at the polling average.
I mean, their analysis looks pretty sound to me (they have a paragraph about it). They took into account all of the important factors, and it does seem like Brown has the edge given his incumbency and the polling showing him slightly ahead (no polls recently though, might need to wait until closer to November). Also, Biden dropping out might increase his chances?
This race might be critical to which party controls the senate in 2024!
I've added a subsidy to this market, and edited in the names of the major party nominees.
For more information and arbitrage, you can also check out the new Key Races dashboard!
Note that if those are not the nominees, this market still resolves to the party of the winning candidate.