Who will trump pardon in the first 100 days of his presidency? Resolves based on reporting, as the clemency list has been unedited. Any commutations will be resolved to 50% at market close, since he could still pardon them.
In the event that a pardon is issued for an individual not listed who is part of a group that is listed, that will resolve YES unless otherwise specified, as they've been pardoned.
All members of a group must be pardoned for a group to resolve YES. If it's obviously that group, but with a conditional tacked on (e.g., "all Jan. 6th rioters with low-level drug offenses"), it resolves to 50%, just like a commutation (as would a conditional tacked onto a commutation).
In the event that a pardon is blocked, overturned, overruled, nullified, or otherwise stopped from taking effect for any reason, it'll have no effect on the resolution of this question - it'll still resolve YES.
Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Grant a full, complete and unconditional pardon to all other individuals convicted of offenses related to events that occurred at or near the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021
En masse resolves YES. Specific individuals can still resolve YES, but doesn't yet.
Update 2025-04-29 (PST): - Pardons issued on the 100th day (final day) will still count toward resolution (AI summary of creator comment)
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https://www.ft.com/content/bc59392e-ac59-47cf-9685-dbb79da55c6b
None of these resolve because of this, but it did happen.
@Marnix Wow. I picked JUST the wrong time to add this one, huh. They're saying he's going to pardon Blagojevich.
"grant a full, complete and unconditional pardon to all other individuals convicted of offenses related to events that occurred at or near the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021"
En masse resolves yes. Specific individuals can still resolve yes if any j6er specifically not pardoned here is pardoned later.
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@ProjectVictory Not necessarily - he could pardon a group of them (such as "any january 6th protestor who didn't take a plea deal") and then pick off specific ones as well (such as a posthumous pardon for Ashli Babbitt)
@quadruple We don't actually know! That'll be a question for the Supreme Court if he tries it - but if he tries it, even if it fails, I'm resolving it YES