Tontine
Mini
36
Ṁ21k
2030
30%
@Joshua
13%
@Gabrielle
11%
@dreev
6%
@jskf
5%
@Lorxus
4%
@Anthem
4%
@roma
4%
@WilliamEhlhardt
3%
@case
1.9%
@jcb
1.9%
@jgyou aka JGY
1.6%
@Primer
1.4%
@Nikos
1.4%
@tfae
1.3%
@AlexbGoode
1.3%
@bohaska
1.2%
Other
1.1%
@Ernie
1%
@AnthonyPeterson
1%
@brubsby (NO)

Closed to new entries. New entries submitted after 2024-01-01 resolve NO.

Your answer resolves NO when someone notices that you stop using Manifold for 30 days and posts a comment to that effect. Using Manifold means making a bet or trade.

The market resolves in the following cases:

  • There is only one person left.

  • Everyone left agrees to end the tontine and divide the pool.

  • I am unable to continue running the market or hand it over to someone else.

Whenever the market resolves, it resolves equally to all remaining people.

I will not bet in this market.

FunTontine ProphecyCommitment DevicesUnrankedNew Year's Resolutions 2024
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
26 Comments
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I believe @CamillePerrin is out (ie, active but no trades/bets in the last month)

@dreev 😭😭😭 (indeed correct)

bought Ṁ10 @jskf YES

Sound-off, who's still alive?

I’m still alive!

I'm not online enough to have such a streak but I'm alive

@Joshua I am dead

Confirmed, @AlexbGoode is sadly out.

bought Ṁ350 @Nikos NO

I believe @Nikos is out 😭

sold Ṁ4 Answer #975ed61b408f YES

Looks like JoshuaB is out too

SeraphinaNix does not exist any more, did they just change usernames, or are they gone?

boughtṀ446@AlexbGoode NO

@Stralor ?

must have been a misclick. adjusted a few oops. now I must root for your demise

@MartinRandall @firstuserhere and @brubsby resolve ‘NO’

Thanks. I can't resolve till the end though, due to Manifold limits on linked markets.

I can't find brubsby in the list...

bought Ṁ5 @brubsby (NO) NO

bought Ṁ300 @brubsby (NO) NO

brubs has a large limit at 1% there, if anyone is willing to eat it up for an unknown amount of time (:sob: I miss loans)

scratch that, might not be buyable. the UI at least tries to refund you before buying it

Maybe make a no limit order at 1% and see if it cancels out? Sounds like a bug though.

bought Ṁ500 Answer #661d1e5f8aff NO

This will resolve NO

RomaboughtṀ260@roma YES

@Adriana492 why

Looks like there are some users whose profile pages 404. I'm not sure if they just changed their usernames or if some of them are out:

  • JGY is @jgyou [now fixed]

  • tiswtr

  • AlexBGoode is probably @AlexbGoode? [now fixed]

  • snoozingnewt

  • SeraphinaNix

  • dylanslagh (duplicated in the list, actual username @DylanSlagh)

@dreev Yeah, I made a mistake when entering my handle

@AlexbGoode fixed it

Is there a definitive way to confirm date-last-active from a user's profile page? I believe that, for example, @brubsby has been inactive for more than 30 days based on their most recent question/comment/trade, but I'm not sure if there's anything I might be missing.

@dreev Not being in a league is a sure sign.

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