Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
72
Ṁ15k
2150
53%
chance
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:

Considering mathematics, the number of people we get in the world, and the actual trend of technological progress and life expectancy, I find this highly unlikely.

bought Ṁ10 YES

/IsaacKing/will-anybody-born-before-2000-live is virtually equivalent. Some arbitrage is needed.

@NicoDelon the resolution criteria are completely different, and the linked market will basically never resolve no.

Twink Joan DidionboughtṀ16NO

@twink_joan_didion Heyyy look at that! We're buying shares on the same side for once!

predicts NO

@firstuserhere you and i, we could've run this town together if only our predictions weren't otherwise different in every way

won't happen
This bet is an investment for my grandchildren