@JoshuaWilkes Why so confident on Farage given that he's leader of a completely separate party?

Not so confident at all, but I think there's a non-trivial chance that he is invited to join the conservatives or some comparable mechanic that allows him to stand

Right, thanks for clarifying

Similar market:

@Predictor has this already

@kolotom99 This is a different question - the overwhelmingly leading answer in that market is Keir Starmer, who isn't even eligible here. Using that market you can construct an answer to the question of who will be the conservative leader conditional on con forming the next government, but it tells you nothing about the alternate (more likely!) conditional. Of course, you might think it would be more interesting to have a market on who will be the con leader after the next general election conditional on con losing - that would be entirely distinct from existing markets. I could change this market into that if people think that would be better and if the other existing investor agrees.

@MichaelBennett Thank you

Who will lead the UK Conservative Party after Rishi Sunak?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition