When will American software engineers start to face significant disemployment?
32
Ṁ2533
2030
1.5%
2024
3%
2025
11%
2026
6%
2027
7%
2028
7%
2029
64%
>=2030

This market is necessarily slightly subjective. I will be tentatively operationalizing the question as:

  • The median (CPI-adjusted) salary for most software engineers dropping to ~50% below the 2021 all-time-high, OR

  • The number of software engineers in the United States dropping by ~50%, OR

  • Some combination of the above of the same significance (e.g. 25% salary drop + 25% dropout).

I will probably be looking at the BLS summaries or the levels.fyi end-of-year report unless someone in the comments suggests a better source.

If the people who create software, who formerly called themselves Software Engineers, start calling themselves something else ("AI prompter"/"prompt engineer"), I will track that in the population statistics as well.

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Can you elaborate on >=2030 option? Until when will we measure this? If you wait long enough sun will bbq earth and life will die off. And likely humans will go extinct way before that.

@Fatih On 2030, if this has not happened, I will resolve the question to ">=2030".

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