This is about the announcement today:
Securing a carrier for the first-ever joint effort between NASA and ISRO astronauts at the International Space Station, which will mark a significant milestone in the U.S.-India space partnership and space exploration
It's not mentioned which carrier this will be.
Feel free to suggest other carriers if you think them likely, and I'll add them to the options.
Update 2025-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A failed launch will still be considered a launch for the purpose of resolving this market.
Update 2025-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on the crew vehicle (capsule) used for a launch attempt under the specified NASA-ISRO collaboration.
Mission success (e.g., successful launch, docking with the ISS, astronaut(s) entering the ISS) is not required for resolution. The identity of the capsule used in the launch attempt is the determining factor.
A launch delay does not resolve the market; an actual launch attempt must occur.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce80glkl7nno
The Axiom Mission 4 (Ax-4), set to take off from Nasa's Kennedy Space Center in Florida next week, will be piloted by an Indian as it soars towards the International Space Station (ISS).
Group Captain Shubhanshu Shukla of the Indian air force is among the four-member multi-country crew of Ax-4 that will be spending two weeks on the ISS.
If launch is cancelled - probably expect another (or same) Dragon, as that is what trained for?
For clarity:
If abort or fail to dock, is that launched so resolves as Dragon (launch with intention to 'go to' ISS is sufficient?) or does astronaut have to actually enter ISS?
@ChristopherRandles Failed launch still counts as a launch for this market.
I'm not 100% sure this launch is happening under the same collaboration program as the original announcement, but it seems probably yes? I'm inclined to rule Dragon on this unless anyone wants to argue otherwise.
@Mqrius I think it is the same agreement
https://www.axiomspace.com/mission-blog/ax4-isro-sfa
โSigning of the Space Flight Agreement is a significant milestone toward the goal of mounting a joint ISRO-NASA effort to the International Space Station, as envisioned in the India-USA Joint Statement during the Official State visit of Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi to the United States in June 2023,โ according to an ISRO statement. โThis joint mission will strengthen human spaceflight cooperation between ISRO and NASA and provide opportunities for the Indian scientific community to undertake cutting-edge research experiments on board the ISS.โ
https://www.mea.gov.in/outoging-visit-detail.htm?36711/IndiaUSA+Joint+Statement+during+the+Official+State+visit+of+Prime+Minister+Shri+Narendra+
23 June 2023
Prime Minister Modi and President Biden set a course to reach new frontiers across all sectors of space cooperation. The leaders applauded our growing cooperation on earth and space science, and space technologies. They welcomed the decision of NASA and ISRO to develop a strategic framework for human spaceflight cooperation by the end of 2023.The leaders hailed the announcement by NASA to provide advanced training to Indian astronauts at the Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas, with a goal of mounting a joint effort to the International Space Station in 2024.
So the timetable slipped a little from what was intended but was called a "strategic framework" in June 2023 and on the June 2024 tweet you included in the question and the announcement regarding Indian astronaut on Ax-4 also refers to the June 2023 state visit of Modi.
Re: Failed launch still counts as a launch for this market.
Presumably a cancelled launch is not a launch so different from a failed launch. With less than a day to go this seems unlikely.
@ChristopherRandles Yeah delayed doesn't resolve yet but I do intend for this market to be about the capsule rather than about launch success. If it's cancelled entirely then we'd have to wait and see but I agree a switch seems unlikely.