Will New Glenn launch a commercial payload before Starship?
32
Ṁ2410
2026
60%
chance

Any payload delivered to its intended orbit for its customer will count as a Yes.

  • Project Kuiper counts for New Glenn

  • Starlink counts for Starship

SpaceSpacexRocketsBlue Origin
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Oh no they postponed the launch. My stocks!!!!

Since Starlink counts for Starship, I assume Blue Ring counts for Blue Origin?

@Mqrius Yep Blue Ring counts.

Does ESCAPADE count?

@NGK This seems like the important question. ESCAPADE is a government satellite, which in industry parlance would often be considered "civil" instead of "commercial" space. But, it's for a paying customer (NASA), which I assume is what most traders have in mind for a market like this. It's not a dummy payload.

My intention was to use commercial as any payload. Happy to hear if either of you think otherwise. My description does state “any payload delivered to its intended orbit”.

I think it should count

500 Yes at 15% if anyone wants it

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