Will the US have a sovereign wealth fund by 2026?
18
Ṁ2301
2026
18%
chance
  • Resolves yes if the US has a federal sovereign wealth fund

  • Resolves yes if an agency with the purpose of implementing a future sovereign wealth fund is created by market close

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The owners won’t allow it. It’ll crowd them out, unless SWF (taxpayer’s $) is setup to front run for them. Besides aren’t we against “State Owned Enterprises”?

I think it's unlikely, but I would be very excited about a US SWF!!!

A large SWF crowds out other investment capital and lowers returns for non-productive "passive" investors. There's a proven playbook by which Norway/Singapore/middle east oil money have productive SWFs, and in the US we have government-operated pensions that have done a good job. At least in the US, they avoid corruption by severe gift restrictions and established FOIA transparency

(Singapore is also good at this). SWFs provide patient capital for long-term societal investments that retail investors cant stomach / have too short-term horizons. SWFs avoid governmental/non-profit incompetency by only ever investing in a non-discretionary capacity (i.e., they free-ride off of for-profit investments). In the age of AI, if the economy starts to quadruple in size, we want a SWF to ride out those benefits and accrue distributed capitalistic benefits to all citizens vs select wealthy.

@CarsonGale Unlike most of those countries, we don't have a natural resource economy and the government is highly indebted. A SWF doesn't make any sense for the US.

https://x.com/patrickdward/status/1832495640364118290