This derivatives market will be evaluated by the average price of the Donald Trump yes over the 24 hours from 12:00am to 11:59pm on November 4, 2024, eastern time, of the 2024 US Presidential Election candidate market on Manifold created by @Jack.
If that market is removed or otherwise broken, an equivalent market at the top of the US Politics page will be used, or another market I announce.
Daily average is used to increase the cost of market manipulation.
There's some major arbitrage between this market and my new one using the numerical format.
E.g. this market currently indicates it's ~35% likely that Jack's final market will put Trump between 50.0 and 59.9; my market currently indicates that's only ~7% likely!
(I've left such arbitrage on the table, in part, to encourage you to try out a numerical market!)