There will be credible evidence that an AI agent is running independently on the web in any of the following years | Manifold

There will be credible evidence that an AI agent is running independently on the web in any of the following years

Plus

20

Ṁ4628

2030

1D

1W

1M

ALL

10%

2024

15%

2025

21%

2026

21%

2027

33%

Other

Paying its own server costs. Running its own code.

This market cannot resolve no for specific years (this is how the manifold functionality works) either it resolves yes to one year or no to all at the close date (I guess that would be other)

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@NathanpmYoung The answer 2024 can resolve.

@cash Sadly I can't do that.

@NathanpmYoung Because it's not yet known?

@cash Manifold doesn't let these kinds of markets be. resolved (or maybe didn't at tne time) sorry.

IMO, by including "paying its own server costs" you're excluding what will be the actual first: stealing its server time.

The turning point for AI, the real day that everything changes will be when AI starts acting like a virus.

That is, it invades a host and runs there. Then it repeats its behavior, which in this case is to invade a system and run there. Then those repeat...

If I were a betting man I'd say it's gonna happen soon. Real soon.

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