Will Kamala Harris be president of the United States before the end of January 2029?
Will Kamala Harris be president of the United States before the end of January 2029?
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This question resolves to "Yes" if Kamala Harris is sworn in as president at any time before February 1, 2029.
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@MP I don't think an oath is required, but I assume one would take place anyway if Biden were to be incapacitated for a long period. The 25th amendment has been used for very brief periods when a President is placed under anesthesia, and there was no oath taken, although the Acting President has never taken any official actions in any of those cases.
@TobiasPace I don't think that should count. It's right in the name, she would be "acting president", not the actual president. We never count people who have been acting presidents in the list of U.S. presidents, nor are they included in the numbering.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
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Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
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