Who will believe in AGI first, Manifold (Yes) or OpenAI (No)? | Manifold

Who will believe in AGI first, Manifold (Yes) or OpenAI (No)?

4

Ṁ270

2030

40%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Which will be true first:

YES:

NO:

OpenAI announces they (or someone else) have achieved AGI

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Related questions

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?

Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?

Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?

Manifold users agree first announced AGI is AGI?

If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Do OpenAI leadership actually believe they could develop AGI?

When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?