MANIFOLD
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A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all
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Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)
78% chance
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
A full world government will develop before human-level AGI
4% chance
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
Will China get AGI first?
26% chance
Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?
16% chance
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?
66% chance
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
In what year will human-level AI first exist?
2038

Related questions

Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)
78% chance
Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?
16% chance
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
A full world government will develop before human-level AGI
4% chance
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?
66% chance
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
Will China get AGI first?
26% chance
In what year will human-level AI first exist?
2038
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