Will Anthropic go bankrupt or be dissolved as a result of a copyright case by the end of 2027?
10
Ṁ506
2026
3%
chance

See https://manifold.markets/CharlesFoster/will-anthropic-be-ordered-to-pay-1b and https://manifold.markets/GauravYadav/will-anthropic-lose-the-authors-cop for context. But for this question we are interested in the scenario where damages are large

  • Update 2025-07-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that in a scenario where bankruptcy is caused by multiple factors, the market may resolve PARTIALLY to a percentage between 0% and 100%.

The specific percentage will be based on the creator's judgment of the Shapley value of the copyright case's contribution to the outcome.

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All the markets on this:
- https://manifold.markets/GauravYadav/will-anthropic-lose-the-authors-cop
- https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/the-potentially-businessending-anth
- https://manifold.markets/CharlesFoster/will-anthropic-be-ordered-to-pay-1b
- https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/will-anthropic-go-bankrupt-or-be-di

How would this resolve if they go bankrupt mostly for other reasons, but the settlement is still not negligible? (Let's say ~10% of the reason)

I think a more interesting market would be whether they have a down round or go bankrupt at all by end of 2027

@Lorenzo My best judgment, maybe as a percentage between 0 and 100% depending on the shapley value of the contribution

I think a more interesting market would be whether they have a down round or go bankrupt at all by end of 2027

Go for it!

Yeah, 3% is still too high, but the implied interest rate not worth it

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