Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?
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This market resolves Yes if Russia officially states that any territory it regrads as part of the country at the start of 2024 is not part of Russia anymore before January 1, 2030 (perhaps, although not necessarily, as part of a peace deal with Ukraine). This question is not about actual control or third-party recognition.

The obvious candidates are the recently annexed regions (Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts) and Crimea.

See also:

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war🇷🇺 RussiaUkraine
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bought Ṁ30 YES

It will probably have to if it wants to get Kursk back

bought Ṁ100 YES

Russia doesn’t even fully control some of the regions it „annexed“ as their territory.

Does this cover the territory that Russia regards as its own, but doesn't actually control, like Kherson city?

@OlegEterevsky Yes.

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