This question resolves Yes if the total estimate of damage from a 2024 hurricane by the National Weather Service meets or exceeds $150,000,000,000. This would put such a storm roughly in the same league as 2005's Hurricane Katrina, adjusted for inflation.
If repurcussions and estimates are still volatile at the end of the year, up to six months (but hopefully less) will be added to this question to allow the estimate time to stabilize. This market does not require the hurricane to maintain hurricane status for any particular length of time, or to stay in a certain category during landfall, or for the NWS's estimate to include or exclude non-American property.
Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments!
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/UpdatedCostliest.pdf
Table 3b uses 2017 USD. Adjusting for inflation:
$150 bn (2024 USD) -> ~ $118 (2017 USD)
Only Harvey and and Katrina have met the damage record in the question criteria according to the source. You can use different cutoffs to get higher probabilities (less coastal infrastructure, etc), but the table goes back to 1900; 2017-1900 ~= 118 years, suggesting a prior on the low end of ~2%. Even if you use a smaller baseline for a cutoff (like last 25 years you will only increase it to 2/25 ~= 8%)
My own super sketchy model (https://manifold.markets/JakeLowery/will-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-se-5j4lfqz5e6#m1qbjlhulfs) for seasonal damage globally puts a (middle) probability of exceedance of 7% for the whole year globally.