Resolution criteria
This market resolves to the single duration bucket that matches the length of the U.S. federal “lapse in appropriations” (government shutdown) that begins in FY2026 (Oct 1, 2025–Sep 30, 2026). Exactly one option resolves Yes; all others resolve No.
Start: 12:00AM ET October 1
End: when the President signs a law (CR or full‑year appropriations) that restores funding to all agencies affected by the lapse. Mainstream media (NYT, WSJ, WaPo) best estimates of this time will be used.
Counting: duration is the number of calendar midnights (ET) that pass while the shutdown is in effect. A lapse that starts and ends on the same calendar day counts as 0 days; any day with any portion under shutdown counts toward the total.
Background
A shutdown occurs when annual or interim appropriations lapse; under the Antideficiency Act, most activities stop except those authorized by law (e.g., protection of life/property). The longest prior shutdown lasted 35 days (Dec 2018–Jan 2019); others include 16 days (Oct 2013) and brief lapses in Jan/Feb 2018. (congress.gov)
As of Oct 1, 2025, agencies have been preparing for a potential lapse; e.g., HHS and FAA detailed expected furloughs and excepted operations if funding expires. These preparations indicate heightened shutdown risk at the FY2026 start. (reuters.com)
Considerations
Partial shutdowns are possible if some agencies are pre‑funded; this market measures from the onset of the lapse until all initially unfunded agencies are covered by an enacted CR/appropriations law.
OMB posts agency contingency plans that clarify which functions continue during a lapse; these are useful for confirming implementation timing. (whitehouse.gov)
Time zone is Eastern Time for start/end and day counting; newswires may report local times—use ET when categorizing duration.
Update 2025-10-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Bucket boundaries and exact ties
Durations strictly below a boundary resolve to the lower bucket; strictly above resolve to the higher bucket. Example: 4d 23h 59m -> 2-5; 5d 1m -> 5-10.
If the duration is exactly on a bucket boundary (e.g., exactly 5, 10, 15 days), both adjacent buckets will resolve at 50% each.
Update 2025-10-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Agency defunding clarification: If a new funding agreement is widely considered the end of the shutdown, it will count as the shutdown end date even if some agency is no longer receiving funding under the new agreement (as long as it isn't a Trump scheme to divert funds). The "all agencies" language is meant to prevent ambiguity when two separate bills are passed to fund different agencies in tranches—in that case, the shutdown ends at the later date when all initially affected agencies are funded.
Update 2025-10-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market close date is not fixed: The creator will extend the close date as long as the shutdown lasts to allow continued trading throughout the shutdown period.
Update 2025-10-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Calendar date mapping added: The creator has added calendar dates to each duration bucket option to show which dates correspond to which buckets (e.g., "0-2 days (October 1-3)").
@PaperBoy IMO the number of active buckets are low enough now that the buckets other than 'Other' are also being inflated.
I don't think 'Other' will reach >50% at least until we're well into '40-50'.
I hate this. People are going hungry. Many working without pay. Flight cancellations piling up right before Thanksgiving. We are failing as a nation.
@mods I linked a market in the comments and my comment disappeared? Was it removed?
@BrunoJ likely. creators can hide comments, or it could have been deleted. some creators don't like other markets getting advertised! and mods might remove it entirely if it was off-topic spam
@Stralor Thanks Pat. I don't think it was off-topic spam. I think it's strange to give market creators control over the comments. Wasn't this place radically in favor of free speech not long ago? I remember actual spam comments not being removed for this very reason.
@BrunoJ ime the priorities are roughly, in order: healthy community, honest resolutions, market creator freedom, free speech, playfulness.
market creators are given wide latitude to moderate their own spaces. this has always been true and they have more tools for it than they did a few years ago. they aren't free to throw a fit and silence reasonable dissent or act in bad faith, but otherwise it's their space.
there are also big differences between spam (rando bot farm or phishing links), spam (valid user cynically chasing attention and mana), spam (silly conversations), and spam (heated arguments that spiral out of control), and we treat them differently in different contexts. free speech has never meant you're allowed to post what you want where you want; it means you're entitled to your opinion and beliefs and may express them in a healthy manner and we try to be flexible on that when everyone is acting in good faith.
@BrunoJ for example, you're approaching this conversation very reasonably and I see no issue that needs me to interfere. the market link you posted is on topic, not in direct competition with this market, and if you've only posted it in one or two markets there's no reason for mods to treat it as spam unless the creator asks us to help keep the comment area clean.
of course it's worth recognizing that sharing your own unsolicited markets in others' spaces isn't always considered polite so it's fair game if the creator complains or if we see behavior that indicates it's cynically being spammed everywhere for mana farming reasons. sharing sparingly and adding an explanatory comment that's relevant to how you're expanding on the topic with your own market is a good way to act in good faith.
(this market is full of other links. I think maybe yours just got lost in the database tbh. but still, thanks for giving me the chance to explain some potentially arcane mod logic for others to see)
@Eliza I petition for an @whales handle we can invoke when we want to ping people who might be interested in dropping huge limit orders, but it can only be used by people who pay a mana fee upfront to prevent it from being spammed.
Users can sign up to be put on this "mailing list" and be notified when this handle is used.
Does this idea have legs?