LOESS curve of opinion polls of voters for the 2025 Canadian federal election campaign:
Dark mode for viewing pleasure:
Up-to-date as of April 15, 2025. 30-poll smoothing factor. Square root applied to sample sizes when weighting. Highlight ribbon is of 95% confidence interval of local regression standard error (not polling margin of error).
@TheAllMemeingEye Unfortunately Elmer Fudd may have made the saddest prediction of all:
(replace Trudeau with generic Liberal, it's mainly the highlighted text that matters)
@TheAllMemeingEye doesn't matter to me though, Canada's population gonna decrease by 1 and the greatest country on Earth's population gonna increase by 1
@PeterNjeim you may have noticed the expertly done sleight of words here. I never specified what the greatest country on Earth is, as it is wholly dependent on the outcome of this election
not whatever this is
If it's not about money, then what would Trump's America have over a hypothetical Carney's Canada that wouldn't be even more so in Putin's Russia or Mohammad bin Salman's Saudi Arabia?
@TheAllMemeingEye "if it's not about [important thing ...]"
It's a nice hypothetical question, but at the end of the day governance is about two things, law and economics. The laws in Canada and America are both very Western and free, so the defining difference as far as I'm concerned is the money. We have lower growth, higher house prices compared to the median wage, higher taxes, etc. Pierre's gonna reverse that, and if Carnage Carney gets in it'll just be a continuation of the disastrous 10 years you can see in the graph I shared above
@PeterNjeim So if it IS about money, then how is Ireland not the best country in the world based on the graph?
@TheAllMemeingEye Poland is a poorer country and has more room to grow from its late start to capitalism
@TheAllMemeingEye looking at its gdp history, 2015 was a dip year and therefore the growth rate is artificially high due to an accidentally cherry picked starting point. Also, it's Europe 🤢
Also, it's Europe
Gonna need elaboration on that, the data points to Europe being pretty good
@PeterNjeim Perhaps this figure is more to your liking?
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-025-04487-x/figures/8
@TheAllMemeingEye that is nice, but it's PPP, a hopeless flawed metric which inaccurately and rashly scales the entire GDP by a basket of domestic goods, even though international goods can't possibly scale that way. For example, a country with a low nominal GDP per capita but a high GDP PPP per capita doesn't magically have an easier time affording an RTX 5090. They can get basic necessities, but that's not what I care about when it comes to comparing developed countries. GDP PPP, once again, is a metric designed for the sole purpose of international bureaucrats to know which countries to focus on, not to differentiate high income countries from one another.
Anyways, obviously this back and forth is kinda tongue in cheek but my point is that Canada = great if Papa Pierre wins, otherwise time to legally immigrate to Daddy Donald
@PeterNjeim I guess I must concede that the US might have the strongest balance of current and growth of money for luxury goods within the set of culturally western and not yet fully totalitarian countries (though it is seemingly heading that way specifically due to trump)
@TheAllMemeingEye No politicians trying to throw you in jail for pointing out ficticious mass murders were ficticious, no mass gun confiscation, no spending half your income on rent, you don't need to learn Punjabi and Arabic to get by, the list goes on
@PeterNjeim The CPC are also far-left works by any international standard and PP has made it clear he's in the same boat, there's no hope for Canada and there never was