What will be the closest state in the 2024 election?
Mini
11
Ṁ305Nov 16
1D
1W
1M
ALL
12%
Georgia
10%
Arizona
10%
Wisconsin
15%
Pennsylvania
15%
Michigan
10%
North Carolina
9%
Nevada
2%
Florida
2%
Texas
1.7%
Minnesota
2%
New Hampshire
2%
Ohio
2%
Iowa
3%
Maine
4%
Any other state
Which state will have the smallest margin of victory, defined as the difference in percentage of votes between the first and second place candidate?
This is only about the states, so Congressional districts with their own electoral votes don't count, even if they are closer than any state.
I included all states where the margin was <10% in 2020 as options. If none of those states are the closest in 2024, this will resolve to "any other state".
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52% chance