Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before end of August 30, 2025, both Israel and Hamas officially announce a ceasefire and hostage exchange agreement. The announcement must be made through official channels, such as government press releases or statements from recognized spokespersons. If no such agreement is announced by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."
Background
As of early June 2025, negotiations between Israel and Hamas have been ongoing, with various proposals and amendments being discussed. Hamas has recently proposed changes to a U.S.-backed temporary ceasefire plan, seeking a permanent ceasefire, Israeli troop withdrawal, and unrestricted humanitarian aid to Gaza. In exchange, Hamas has offered to release 10 hostages and the remains of 18 others for over 1,200 Palestinian prisoners. However, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff has deemed Hamas's response "totally unacceptable." (reuters.com)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has confirmed agreement with the original U.S. proposal and accused Hamas of persistent rejection. Meanwhile, Israel's military operations in Gaza continue, with recent claims of the death of Hamas Gaza chief Mohammad Sinwar. The humanitarian situation in Gaza has severely worsened under an Israeli blockade, with aid looting driven by desperation and famine risks highlighted by UN agencies. (reuters.com)
Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak has urged current leadership to support a U.S.-backed hostage release and Gaza ceasefire deal, aligning with Donald Trump's vision for a normalized Middle East. Barak criticizes Prime Minister Netanyahu for prioritizing political survival over national security and moral responsibility, accusing him of prolonging the Gaza conflict to avoid legal and political repercussions. (time.com)
Considerations
Traders should monitor official statements from both Israeli and Hamas representatives, as well as reports from credible news outlets, to stay informed about the progress of negotiations. The complex political dynamics and humanitarian concerns in the region may influence the likelihood of an agreement being reached within the specified timeframe.
Update 2025-07-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user question, the creator has clarified that a 'humanitarian pause' will not be sufficient for a 'Yes' resolution. The agreement must be for a ceasefire, and a hostage deal.
@PoliticalEconomyPK For this market to resolve โyesโ do all hostages need to be released or just some? Also, does a humanitarian pause count?
Im editing this comment because I re read it and i felt it was in conflict with the essence of this market. This market is not actually about if the hostages do get released eventually, its about a "hostage and ceasefire deal" if that happens I will resolve this in 96 hours, regardless if the deal stays after that or not
@AaronSimansky since the question clearly states that it has to be a ceasefire and hostage deal, only that will count