Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Max Verstappen signs a contract to drive for the Mercedes-AMG Petronas Formula One Team by December 31, 2025. Official announcements from Mercedes, Red Bull Racing, or Verstappen himself will serve as the primary sources for resolution. If no such contract is signed by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".
Background
Max Verstappen, a four-time Formula One World Champion, is currently contracted with Red Bull Racing until 2028. Despite this long-term agreement, there has been speculation about a potential move to Mercedes. Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff has acknowledged interest in Verstappen, stating that "anything is possible" regarding future driver line-ups. (si.com) However, Red Bull's Christian Horner has dismissed these rumors as "a lot of noise," emphasizing Verstappen's existing contract. (reuters.com)
Considerations
Verstappen's contract reportedly includes performance clauses that could allow for early termination under specific conditions. (reuters.com) Additionally, Mercedes' current driver, George Russell, is out of contract at the end of 2025, potentially opening a seat. (reuters.com) Traders should monitor official statements and contract developments from both teams and the driver for the most accurate information.
The probability of Max Verstappen joining Mercedes is considered very low, with recent estimates from F1 insiders and team principal Toto Wolff suggesting the chance is around 10%. Wolff has publicly stated there is "very little probability" of Verstappen moving to Mercedes for 2026 or beyond, emphasizing that the team is happy with its current lineup of George Russell and Kimi Antonelli and sees them as the future.
While there have been ongoing talks between Mercedes and Verstappen, and Russell himself has acknowledged that these discussions are influencing the timing of his own contract extension, there is no confirmation or strong indication that Verstappen will leave Red Bull—where he is under contract until 2028—anytime soon. Exit clauses do exist in Verstappen's Red Bull contract, but they are performance-related and have not been triggered as of now.
In summary, the chance of Verstappen joining Mercedes for 2026 is currently estimated at about 10%, with all public statements from Mercedes leadership reinforcing that such a move remains highly unlikely barring unexpected developments.