How many EF4+ tornadoes will have hit the US by the end of 2025
3
Ṁ18
Dec 31

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*There have so far been 5 EF4+ tornadoes as of market creation

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the total number of tornadoes rated EF4 or higher (EF4 and EF5) that occur in the United States from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025. The official count will be determined using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The final numbers are typically published in the SPC's annual report, which can be accessed at NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. The market will resolve to the exact number reported by the SPC for the specified period.

Background

Tornadoes are rated on the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, which classifies tornadoes from EF0 (weakest) to EF5 (strongest) based on the damage they cause. EF4 tornadoes are characterized by wind speeds of 166–200 mph and cause devastating damage, while EF5 tornadoes have wind speeds exceeding 200 mph and result in incredible damage. (en.wikipedia.org)

Historically, the number of EF4+ tornadoes can vary significantly. For instance, in 2018, there were no EF4 or EF5 tornadoes, marking the only year without a single violent tornado since records began in 1950. (weather.com)

In 2024, the U.S. experienced a near-historic level of tornado activity, with 1,796 confirmed tornadoes, making it the second-highest number on record. This included 4 EF4 tornadoes, contributing to the year's significant impact. (weather.gov)

Considerations

The occurrence of EF4 and EF5 tornadoes is relatively rare and can be influenced by various climatic and atmospheric conditions. Traders should consider factors such as seasonal weather patterns, climate anomalies, and historical trends when making predictions.

  • Update 2025-06-25: Changed the option for 8 tornadoes to 8+ tornadoes meaning in the unlikely case that there are more than 8 EF4+ tornadoes the option '8+' tornadoes will resolve yes.

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@mods Just realized I can't add more tiles, is it possible that a mod can either let me change it or add an option for 9+ tornadoes please, thanks.

@RZacDQ you can edit the last answer's name to 8+, but you can't add more options

@ian thanks

@RZacDQ Your resolution criteria are impossible if there are more than 8 such tornadoes. You can't then resolve to an exact value. You can resolve to N/A but not to an exact value. Or am I missing something? This is a dependent market as set up. Please clarify.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen This is because the total of 8 or more EF4+ tornadoes happening in the US by the end of the year would be very unlikely, the last time there was 3 tornadoes outside the months of Jan-June was at least before 2010 however I will concede that in both 2022 and 2021 there was in each years 2 EF4+ tornadoes after June. There has currently been 5 EF4+ tornadoes and if that total ever goes up to 6 I would add higher numbers, unless you think I should make an option for 9+ EF4+ tornadoes I can.

@RZacDQ Hmm. Why does the AI description say the average is 9 historically?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Last time that happened was in 2013 (coincidently when the last EF5 tornado happened), and only 2 of those tornadoes were in the second half of the year, it is important to consider that tornadoes are much more common in spring, from March to June. However I may as well add the option to 9+ just for the sake of it.

@RZacDQ Could you edit the AI hallucination out from the description?