This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump wins the election and announces that Elon Musk is nominated to a cabinet position by February 28, 2025. Trump must say what the position is; a general expression that Musk will be in the cabinet will not count. "The cabinet" means one of the 15 heads of government agencies, or a role designated as cabinet-level.
If the Republican ticket loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If the Republican ticket wins but Donald Trump is not able to fulfill his duties, then the market will be resolved based on whether whoever the next president is nominates Musk.
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Selling my no because it's unclear to me if the resolver will regard DOGE as "cabinet-level" or not.
(Specifically: I'm not >94% sure that they'll regard DOGE as "not cabinet-level")
Elon going to the "Department of Government Efficiency"
Polymarket is at 20%: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-wins-and-appoints-elon-musk-to-cabinet?tid=1731124727072
That being said, Musk will not be in the Cabinet.
Trump said: “He doesn’t want to be in the Cabinet, he just wants to be in charge of cost-cutting. We’ll have a new position, secretary of cost-cutting, Elon wants to do that.”
If the Republican ticket loses the election, this market will settle as N/A.
Sounds like it should have been higher than 12% on Nov 4. Trump winning shouldn't cause the price to go up.
@WilliamKiely "should have been higher" assuming the current 25% is the right price, which I don't know.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why should I trade?
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.