Donald Trump must be named in any currently classified documents relating to Jeffrey Epstein’s criminal activities that directly implicates Trump in some way. Resolution is subjective, but it will be based on information from multiple media sources.
The market resolves YES if such documents are released to the public or publicly reported on.
The market resolves NO if all or almost all relevant files are publicized with no clear implication of Donald Trump in Epstein’s criminal activities.
The market’s close may be postponed as needed for proper resolution, but it may be canceled if there remains little chance of resolving for a long time.
I think people are missing that this is a conditional probability question. Conditional on the documents release, what are the odds that Trump is in them?
To determine this, you have to consider what are the odds that Trump will release the documents contingent on him being directly implicated in them.
Or, you have to be very patient and wait for a Democrat to be in a position to declassify them and actually choose to do so, and hope the market doesn't get cancelled in the meantime.