Summer is a bit vague but I'll bet anyway.

@BmSm other than northern hemisphere bias (the best hemisphere!) it's rather well-defined

Biden finally figured out where his secretary of defense was and I guess launched some token attacks on Houthi targets. Hard to determine the magnitude of the strikes but one report has it at a "more than a dozen" targets which doesn't sound that impressive.

@AlQuinn also indications the Houthis anticipated the attacks and may have moved some of their crap out of harm's way ahead of time. Giving warnings is idiotic because the next shithole country that wants to hold up international shipping will have an opportunity to do so since they will know that daddy will count to 3 before he gets the belt out.

"Summer" is too vague. Need a specific date and time to resolve the bet properly.

@DavidSpencer I clarified below. Summer’s start which is June 20th.

To clarify, currently 95% of traffic has shifted to around Cape of Good Hope. This assumes returning to normal flows back through the Suez by Summer start.

How will you decide the outcome of this? While traffic there is reduced, some container ships are still traveling the Red Sea now.