Before we even talk about specific coaches, let’s talk about our priors. On average, about 25 head coach changes happen in FBS football every season. That’s roughly 19% of all coaches turning over for one reason or another (fired or hired away). So a decent know-nothing prior is that any given coach is 19% likely to be out. 

The average tenure for a head coach is about 4 years, so if a coach is above 4 years and the team isn’t performing well, they are likely to be on the hot seat. Coaches can always be fired for off the field reasons, so even a coach as far as you can imagine from the hot seat can never be considered 0%.

I don’t have enough mana liquidity to bid all the prices to these guesses, so this is a free research report for you.

• Boston College - Bill O'Brien: 7%. Last year was his first year and his 7-6 record with a loss at the Pinstripe Bowl against Nebraska is certainly not early firing worthy. Barring a spectacular collapse this year O’Brien seems safe.

• California - Justin Wilcox: 30%. Cal is floundering. They had one of the largest portal exoduses in the entire country after a weak 2-6 record in their first year of ACC play. Wilcox is an unpopular figure (and has had since 2017 to right the ship) but still sitting on a large buyout (and Cal’s athletics are notoriously broke, with reportedly the largest debt in all of college sports). I think he’ll limp along to another season, but I could see it.

• Clemson - Dabo Swinney: 7%. Clemson hasn’t been at the top of the sport like they were in the recent past and had an embarrassing loss to rival South Carolina last year. All signs are that they'll have an excellent team this year and Dabo has finally been willing to hit the portal to pick up some missing pieces for the Tigers, which should silence some voices who were getting sick of his old fashioned ways. I think there’s a small chance of a transfer up if the right SEC job comes open, but if it was going to happen I would have thought it’d be the Alabama job last year.

• Duke - Manny Diaz: 5%. Only his second year on the job and his first year was strong, leading Duke to a 9-5 record with a loss to Ole Miss in the Gator Bowl. Duke has looked good under both Diaz and former coach Mike Elko, but no matter how this year goes they should definitely give him a chance for a 3rd bite at the apple.

• Florida State - Mike Norvell: 10%. Look, if they go 2-10 again he’s fired. But they aren’t going to go 2-10 again. FSU has shown willingness to pay for the staff (bringing on Gus Malzahn as OC) and players he needs to succeed, but he has to succeed. It’d be so funny if they go 2-10 again.

• Georgia Tech - Brent Key: 5%. WARNING: HOMER ALERT, GO BEES, BUZZ BUZZ BUZZ.

• Louisville - Jeff Brohm: 10%. Louisville is a perennial conference title contender under Brohm and I think they’re pretty happy with where they’re at. The only real threat to me seems like a move up to the Power 2.

• Miami (FL) - Mario Cristobal: 10%. Mario. Mario Mario Mario. Miami had a rough ending to the year and will be without #1 draft pick Cam Ward leading the offense this year. Still Mario’s buyout is something like $61M and I expect Miami will be stuck with his abysmal in-game decision making for years to come.

• North Carolina - Bill Belichick: 40%. Hahahahahahahahahaha. Anyways I suspect this was all a ploy to set up his son with the job so he can go back to the NFL. But who wants him? The Falcons kicked the tires and weren’t impressed. I honestly don’t know what will happen, but it would not surprise me if this whole debacle is a one-and-done.

• NC State - Dave Doeren: 5%. Dave Doeren signed a contract extension last year and I suspect he’ll remain head coach of the Wolf Pack in all but the most unlikely circumstances.

• Pittsburgh - Pat Narduzzi: 20%. My heart breaks for the poor Pitt fans of the world, but his buyout is something like $30M and I don’t see it. The Clemson game last year is one of the worst things I’ve ever watched. I think he’s allergic to scoring points or something.

• SMU - Rhett Lashlee: 5%. Lashlee signed a multiyear extension with SMU in 2023 and had the Mustangs immediately playing in the ACC Championship and the CFB Playoffs in his first year in the ACC.

• Stanford - Frank Reich: 85%. Reich is the interim coach for Stanford pending an actual coaching search. Interims getting hired on for the full-time job is certainly not unheard of, but it is rare. I’d expect this to be a precursor to an actual hire announced some time this year.

• Syracuse - Fran Brown: 5%. It’s only his second year on the job and Brown’s record of 10-3 in his first season was a resounding success. Landing QB transfer Kyle McCord last year makes him look savvy and I can’t see Syracuse giving him up willingly. Winners Get Washed (and also get low prediction market odds on being fired)

• Virginia - Tony Elliott: 100%. Tony Elliott at UVA is so fired I forgot to include him 😂. Sorry Virginia fans, but I made the question with no new answers allowed. My actual number is probably only 75%, but it doesn’t matter since we can’t bet on it.

• Virginia Tech - Brent Pry: 20%. VT had a disappointing year in 2024. They started preason 6th in the ACC and had a remarkably easy schedule with a real path to the ACC Championship. That…did not happen. Still Pry’s buyout is large and this seat probably won’t actually heat up until 2026.

• Wake Forest - Jake Dickert: 5%. This is Dickert’s first season with the Deacs and they paid out his buyout at Wazzou to get him. I can’t see this changing for anything other than off the field stuff.

Good luck and have fun laughing at how horribly wrong these are in November!